TTR Tracker

How the odds are worked out

Every percentage on this site comes out of one model, so it is worth saying plainly what that model is — and, more importantly, which parts of it are still guesses.

What one cast is

Before anything else, a cast is split three ways by what you hook at all.

• 93% a fish
• 1% a jellybean jar
• 6% a boot

Then, if it is a fish

The game rolls a rarity from 1 to 10 on a curve that leans heavily toward the low numbers, then picks uniformly at random out of that pond's bucket of fish at that rarity. A species listed at a pond more than once sits in the bucket more than once, so it is drawn more often.

If the rolled rarity's bucket is empty at that pond, the roll cascades downward — rarity 8 with nothing at 8 tries 7, then 6, and so on. This is why a pond holding few high-rarity fish returns its common ones far more often than the raw rarity numbers suggest, and it is the main reason a plain rarity table is misleading about what you will actually pull out of the water.

Your rod bends that curve. Better rods shift probability toward higher rarities on every cast, on top of raising the weight they can land. The rod comparison shows what each is worth.

What is still unknown

Three things here are modelled rather than measured, and it would be dishonest to print them in the same voice as the rest:

• Whether street ponds inherit their neighborhood's fish. The game's own engine expands a neighborhood zone to every street pond in it, and that is what this site follows. ToonHQ's advisor instead treats a neighborhood listing as the playground pond only. Every difference between our pond lists and theirs comes down to this one question — roughly 139 street-pond entries. We follow the engine because the client's own code says so, but it has not been settled by in-game testing.
• The exact rarity dial after update v3.7.0. The patch notes said the rarity curve was "decreased by a smidge" without publishing the new number, so the previous value is still in use here. Rare-fish percentages may be a little conservative.
• How large the v3.7.0 pond boosts are. "Increased probability weight" is modelled as doubling a species' weight in its boosted pond, which is what the engine's own mechanism would do, but the real multiplier was never published.

Where a number here disagrees with a wiki, this is almost always why. None of the three moves which pond is best by much — but they do move the absolute percentages, so treat the "casts on average" figures as good planning numbers rather than promises.

Track your own odds on your own toon

The tracker reads your caught list straight out of the game and ranks every pond by the chance your next cast lands a species you have never caught. These pages are the reference; the tracker is the part that knows what you personally still need.